1.5 Did the Media Make Trump

Vox: "Yes, blame the media for Donald Trump. Up the point."

1. What do people who do blame the media for Trump argue that they did? 

They contend that journalists gave Trump a disproportionally large quantity of coverage, boosting his popularity among voters who keep up with media. 

2. What did Berelson and Lazarsfeld find in their study of media impact?

They found very little evidence that media on its own influences for whom voters should vote. Voters' choices depend on a variety of influences, especially social environment. 

3. What aspects of the election does the media tend to focus on?

Media has the greatest effect on people's preferences during primaries and caucuses, and thus, focus on covering those. 

4. What does "priming" mean?'

Priming refers to the way the press can influence the standards by which audiences evaluate a candidate. 

5. What does the article claim is the main thing the media did that impacted Trump's success?

Trump succeeded in garnering the Republican nomination due to the large number of news stories and amount of free media coverage about his candidacy that towered over those of his Republican rivals.

6. What impacts did this (#5) have exactly?

Covering Trump so often made viewers believe that Trump's candidacy and his views on policies such as trade and immigration were to be considered seriously. It also placed the political agenda of his rivals at an inferior position compared to his. 

The Atlantic: "Stop Blaming the Media for Trump"

7. What evidence does this author use to refute the claims that Trump has benefited from the coverage?

Trump has not benefited from the large-scale media coverage because such has resulted in being negatively viewed by 70% of voters and being 12 points behind Clinton in election polls. 

8. When does the author claim that media coverage is most important to a candidate?

Media exposure is most important during the invisible primary in order to secure donors and insiders' preference and rise in the polls. 

9. How does the article characterize the media coverage of Trump during the primaries?

He was receiving more positive or neutral media coverage than his opponents, showing how the strength of such early coverage indicated voters' interest. 

10. Why does the author claim that the "media is the effect, not the cause?"

Large media coverage was not the cause of Trump's rise in the primaries but the result of such because the media only started paying attention and covering him more after seeing that he was gaining in the polls and attracting large crowds. 

1.4 Polls and Predictions

"Hilary Clinton's health news come just as the race is close enough for Dems to worry"

1. What has changed since Clinton's high point in Mid-August?

The polls' prediction of her margin over Trump has decreased and the swing states that Clinton once had locked down are becoming more competitive. 

2. Looking at the graph, when was the largest lead for Clinton over Trump in the polls?

Around August 9th. 

3.  About how big is the gap between the candidates now?

Only 3 percentage points. 

4. What arguments can Clinton's opponents make because of her new health issues?

Her critics use her health issues to support their attack that she is dishonest and secretive because Clinton kept her pneumonia diagnosis private for two days. 

5. Which swing states are mentioned and how does Clinton fare in those places?

Clinton leads Virginia by 6 points, Wisconsin by 5, New Hampshire by 5, Pennsylvania by 6, and ties in Florida. 

"3 Explanations for why Donald Trump is suddenly doing better in the polls"

6. What 3 reasons does the author give for the recent tightening in the polls?

Trump has made major changes to his campaign team and press strategy by avoiding press for highly controversial subjects, Clinton has been negatively affected by stories of the email scandals and Clinton Foundation, and Clinton has recently come down with pneumonia. 

7. What specific changes has the Trump campaign made since mid August?

He hired a new campaign team and has stopped getting into major controversies and has put more focus on spending money to get traditional campaign ads out to the public. 

8. How has the Trump campaign changed its spending habits?

He is finally investing millions in swing state campaign ads. 

9. What did the Clinton campaign change up in August?

She has put more focus on fundraising and less on campaigning, which allows the negative press surrounding her to flourish, 

10. How does Vox author Jeff Stein account for some changes in the polls?

The changes are not necessarily due to people changing their minds, but instead, arise from sample selection bias in surveys. 

"President Obama: the media is completely failing to hold Donald Trump to account"

11.  What is Obama's criticism of the way the media is handling Clinton and Trump?

He criticized the double standard that the media has been holding Clinton and Trump. They cover unnecessary and distracting "news" while creating a false equivalence between Clinton and Trump and ignoring the fact that Clinton is still much more transparent than Trump. 

1.3 Independent Voters

9 Media Myths about Independent Voters Debunked

 

1. What is the general understanding of the term "independent voter"?

Independent voters are those who do not affiliate with either Democratic or Republican parties and are viewed as a special, elusive, important group of voters.

2. How do these researchers characterize voters who call themselves independent?

Independents are "partisans who don't want to admit that they are partisans." In other words, they have the sameT partisan views but identify as independent because they don't want to identify their preferred party because the nominees are unsatisfactory. 

3. How do independent political preferences compare to those of democrats and republicans? 

Independents often have the same political views as the partisans of their respective party. 

4. What are "leaners"?   How are leaners different from party members?

Leaners are independents who do prefer one party over another. Leaners toward a certain party are no different from partisans of a party; they consistently support their favored party every election. 

5. What % of Americans call themselves independent?  Democrats?  Republicans?

42% call themselves independent, 29% Democrats, and 26% Republicans.

6. What % of Americans actually don't lean towards one of the parties?

Only 13% out of the 42% of those independent report that they don't lean towards either party. 

7. Why are people likely to call themselves independent instead of identifying themselves with a party?

People believe that being independent makes them look more favorable to others; it doesn't carry the negative connotations of calling oneself a strong Democrat or Republican. Independents are viewed as being more reasonable, trustworthy, and likeable than partisans. 

8. What prevents independents from forming a real third party challenge to democrats & republicans?

They can't form a real third party because they would have to truly believe that neither of the two main parties can represent their views and because they are too diverse to unite interests around a single candidate.

9. Why don't independents actually impact the outcome of elections that much?

Since independents are really just partisans who don't want to be seen as partisans, it is pretty certain that they will vote for their preferred party. 

10. How are moderate voters different than "independents"?

Moderates can be defined as those whose political ideologies are in the middle of the liberal-conservative spectrum, those who have a mix of conservative and liberal political values, or those who just don't know much about politics to make determinations. However, independents usually share the same views as partisans of a party. 

11. How are "swing voters" and "undecided voters" different?

Swing voters are those who may change their preferences to either party during an election because they lack strong partisan beliefs. They are different from undecided voters, those wait until the last minute before the end of the election to decide on a candidate. 

1.2 Ideological Polarization

1.  What was unique about Hillary's response to a question about political polarization?

She has none of the idealistic beliefs. Instead, she acknowledges the harsh reality, that getting things done in a polarized political system will not come naturally and instead, require exhaustive effort. She accepts that compromise is the only way to yield a change, albeit slowly, against a predominantly Republican Congress.

2. What does Hillary Clinton feel motivates her political opponents?

She firmly believes that her opponents act just to destroy her, to spite her, rather than to get meaningful change. 

3. How does she characterize those that make grand speeches about bringing the people together?

She views them with scorn because they are too optimistic, too idealistic, too illusory. 

4. What will be her strategy for dealing with political opponents if she wins office?

She has branded the Republicans as her enemies, yet she still believes that compromise is possible, although it will be a tedious process and require extreme persistence. 

5. What does she think will change about the public's perception of her if she wins?  Why does she think this?

She contends that popular opinion of her will improve greatly if she wins the election because she will be viewed as someone who has already achieved in securing the position of presidency rather than someone who is seeking it. 

6. What is the trend in approval ratings of recent presidents by both major parties?

The gap between Democrats' approval ratings and Republicans' approval ratings has gotten wider and wider. Democratic presidents get high approval ratings from Democrats and low approval ratings from Republicans, which Republican presents get low approval ratings from Democrats and high approval ratings from Republicans. 

7. Which presidents since Eisenhower were the least polarizing?

Johnson (30 difference), Ford (31), and Carter (27)

8. Which presidents have had the lowest approval rating among their own party?

Dwight Eisenhower had the lowest Democratic approval ratings. 

Gerald Ford had the lowest Republican approval ratings. 

9. Which presidents have had the lowest approval rating among the opposition party?

Obama has the lowest Republican approval ratings.

G.W. Bush had the lowest Democratic approval ratings.