1.4 Polls and Predictions

"Hilary Clinton's health news come just as the race is close enough for Dems to worry"

1. What has changed since Clinton's high point in Mid-August?

The polls' prediction of her margin over Trump has decreased and the swing states that Clinton once had locked down are becoming more competitive. 

2. Looking at the graph, when was the largest lead for Clinton over Trump in the polls?

Around August 9th. 

3.  About how big is the gap between the candidates now?

Only 3 percentage points. 

4. What arguments can Clinton's opponents make because of her new health issues?

Her critics use her health issues to support their attack that she is dishonest and secretive because Clinton kept her pneumonia diagnosis private for two days. 

5. Which swing states are mentioned and how does Clinton fare in those places?

Clinton leads Virginia by 6 points, Wisconsin by 5, New Hampshire by 5, Pennsylvania by 6, and ties in Florida. 

"3 Explanations for why Donald Trump is suddenly doing better in the polls"

6. What 3 reasons does the author give for the recent tightening in the polls?

Trump has made major changes to his campaign team and press strategy by avoiding press for highly controversial subjects, Clinton has been negatively affected by stories of the email scandals and Clinton Foundation, and Clinton has recently come down with pneumonia. 

7. What specific changes has the Trump campaign made since mid August?

He hired a new campaign team and has stopped getting into major controversies and has put more focus on spending money to get traditional campaign ads out to the public. 

8. How has the Trump campaign changed its spending habits?

He is finally investing millions in swing state campaign ads. 

9. What did the Clinton campaign change up in August?

She has put more focus on fundraising and less on campaigning, which allows the negative press surrounding her to flourish, 

10. How does Vox author Jeff Stein account for some changes in the polls?

The changes are not necessarily due to people changing their minds, but instead, arise from sample selection bias in surveys. 

"President Obama: the media is completely failing to hold Donald Trump to account"

11.  What is Obama's criticism of the way the media is handling Clinton and Trump?

He criticized the double standard that the media has been holding Clinton and Trump. They cover unnecessary and distracting "news" while creating a false equivalence between Clinton and Trump and ignoring the fact that Clinton is still much more transparent than Trump.